Japan's ruling coalition loses upper house majority

A historic setback

This marks the coalition’s second consecutive loss following the lower house elections in October, creating an unprecedented period of political instability in postwar Japan.

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner Komeito failed to secure the 50 seats needed out of the 125 contested. The LDP, which has dominated Japanese politics almost continuously since its founding, now finds itself in the minority in both houses of parliament for the first time since 1955.

The prime minister has said he intends to remain in office, but his position is extremely fragile. Leaders of all major opposition parties have firmly rejected the idea of forming a coalition with the ruling bloc.

Losing the upper house majority does not automatically trigger a change in government, as it cannot pass a no-confidence vote against the prime minister. However, this defeat significantly weakens Ishiba’s standing and could force him to resign under pressure from within his own party.

Opposition gains strength

Japan’s main opposition parties made significant gains in the election. The Constitutional Democratic Party retained its 38 seats, remaining the largest opposition force.

The Democratic Party for the People, led by Yuichiro Tamaki, increased its seats from 9 to 22, though Tamaki said forming a coalition with the ruling bloc is “out of the question.”

One party that drew particular attention was the right-wing populist Sanseito, which ran under the slogan “Japanese First” and expanded its representation from 2 to 15 seats. The party is known for its strong anti-immigration stance.

Record number of women elected

Forty-two women won seats in the upper house, surpassing the previous record of 35 set in 2022. Women secured 33.6 percent of the seats contested.

A total of 152 female candidates ran in the election, making up 29.1 percent of all candidates. This falls short of the government’s target of 35 percent by 2025 and is lower than the record 33.2 percent seen in 2022.

Economic troubles shape the outcome

The coalition’s defeat was largely driven by economic challenges. Rising prices, including for traditional Japanese rice, combined with stagnant incomes and higher social contributions, fueled voter dissatisfaction. Turnout reached 58.51 percent, six points higher than in the 2022 election.

Adding to the pressure are trade tensions with the United States. President Donald Trump is threatening to impose 25 percent tariffs on Japanese goods starting August 1. Talks have been underway since April, but the current political instability may make it even harder to reach a deal.

Earlier, Kazinform News Agency reported that Japan's trade surplus in June shrank 30.8 percent from a year earlier to 153.1 billion yen ($1 billion) as automobile and other exports to the United States plunged amid higher tariffs.