India vs Pakistan: Who will win the dispute over Kashmir

Kashmir became the cause of three Indo-Pakistani wars

The aggravation of relations between India and Pakistan due to the situation in Kashmir has periodically occurred in the history of these two countries since the very beginning of their formation after the collapse of British India in 1947. This is a sore point that has affected the foreign and domestic policies of the two states for many decades. Kashmir was the cause of all three Indo-Pakistani wars. Moreover, the last large-scale aggravation occurred in February 2019.

Back then it all started with a terrorist attack, when a suicide bomber from the Jaish-e-Mohammed group attacked a bus with Indian police officers, killing 45 people. After that, until August, a real war with the use of aviation and artillery took place between India and Pakistan. For the first time since 1971, Indian aviation bombed a Jaish-e-Mohammed camp in Pakistan, which led to retaliatory actions by the Pakistani side.

This time, a terrorist attack on April 22 was carried out on a group of Indian tourists in Kashmir, killing 26 people. India responded quickly and harshly. Delhi named three terrorists, indicating that two of them were Pakistanis. On the morning of April 24, the Indians attacked the houses of those they considered responsible for the incident in Pakistan. For several days afterwards, mutual fire took place along the border.

In addition, India closed the only functioning Waggah-Attari border crossing, cancelled visas and ordered Pakistani citizens to leave its territory. However, the most radical decision was to block the Indus River, which flows from India to Pakistan and is the main source of water. It is important to note that agriculture provides jobs for 45% of the Pakistani population.

Characteristically, India thus violated the current 1960 agreement on transboundary water resources. Notably, it was not violated even during the 1971 war and other periodically arising conflicts between the two countries. This already speaks of a very extraordinary development of events and their scale. Pakistan has already stated that blocking the Indus can be considered a pretext for war. In addition, the Pakistanis began to transfer troops to the border areas, hinting at their readiness to respond very harshly.

Delhi and Islamabad on the brink of war?

The Indian side has sharply raised the stakes in this complex game, which has been going on since almost 1947. The big question is why Delhi decided to go this way. Despite the tragedy of the incident with tourists in Kashmir, it is still not a reason for such a level of escalation, which could theoretically lead to a major war. Considering the presence of nuclear weapons in both countries, about 300 warheads together, this is a very dangerous situation. Experts have already calculated that if they are used, the number of victims could reach 50 to 125 million people.

This is probably one of the most serious aggravations of the situation between India and Pakistan in recent times. Therefore, the question arises as to why this certainly tragic, but still local incident suddenly led to such consequences. Aside from that, it is important to understand how likely it is that a war can still begin, or the parties are still using the situation to demonstrate their determination, but then why?

Usually, this is necessary mainly in order to use the patriotic upsurge and the growth of social cohesion based on the idea of ​​protecting identity to solve primarily domestic problems. In fact, this is traditionally the only task for such low-intensity conflicts in the complex history of Indian-Pakistani relations, such as the events of 2019 or the Kargil War of 1999. After all, there have been no major wars here since 1971. Because there can be no easy victory, the parties have accumulated too many weapons, and a longer war would be fraught with too many costs for both countries. It is clear that the possession of nuclear weapons by countries is also a deterrent.

Therefore, in general, in the current situation, there is a high probability of a repeat of 2019, when the situation stabilized after a relatively small exchange of blows. Although it should be taken into account that the current conflict is taking place in slightly different conditions, which is true both for the situation in the domestic politics of both countries and for the current international situation.

Why Pakistani authorities benefit from a conflict with India

It is worth noting that Pakistan has a difficult economic situation. The country depends on external financing, which is mainly associated with various forms of aid. Pakistan has a large debt, which it is forced to refinance on ever-worsening terms. Major problems with climate change, especially with water, are critical for the growing population of this country, half of which is associated with agriculture.

To this we can add an internal political crisis, which is mainly associated with the history of the very popular former Prime Minister Imran Khan. In January 2024, he was convicted on a number of articles, including disclosure of state secrets and even a very exotic one, related to the violation of the terms of marriage in 2018 after his wife's divorce from her previous husband.

However, Imran Khan remains popular in the country. In February 2024, his supporters, running as independent candidates, won 101 seats out of 270. At the same time, the turnout was very low. Therefore, the traditional parties Muslim League and People's Party have created a coalition with the involvement of a number of small parties to overcome the crisis.

In this difficult situation, the conflict with India gives the Pakistani authorities an opportunity to somewhat improve their position within the country against the backdrop of growing patriotic sentiments in society. In addition, this is also important in connection with the special role of the army, which traditionally has a great influence on political processes. It is clear that the army finds itself in a more advantageous position in public opinion given the threat of war.

The complexities of Delhi's domestic policy

At the same time, the economic situation in India is much better than in Pakistan. In recent years, there has been significant economic growth - 5.4% in 2024. However, this was due to the growth of foreign investment, in particular, the transfer of production chains, including high-tech products.

But recently there has been a decline, which is associated with the disappointment of investors in connection with the conditions provided to them. This is due both to excessive regulation by the state and to the insufficient level of infrastructure development. Characteristically, the level of labor productivity in India is only one third of the level in China. Naturally, this increases the costs of investors, especially for high-tech products. For example, it is often mentioned that the percentage of defects in its production in India is significantly higher than in China. As a result, it is becoming increasingly obvious that India cannot replace China as the second "factory of the world", at least not completely.

In any case, India, as a result of an attempt to rely on foreign investment and subsequent exports, has become much more dependent on foreign trade. Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised voters to make India the third largest economy in the world. In essence, it was a bet on globalization. Therefore, the problems with the global economy, which began before US President Donald Trump came to power, but have noticeably worsened with the start of trade wars, are extremely disadvantageous for India.

It would seem that India does not have such a conflict of interest with the US over tariffs as China does today. Negotiations are underway between them. At the same time, India agreed to reduce tariffs on 55% of imports from the US, which in total amount to $23 billion, in order to maintain its exports of $66 billion. Nevertheless, the crisis of globalization puts the Indian economy in a very difficult position.

The current Indian authorities have their own difficulties in domestic politics. Last year, Modi was able to remain in power in the elections, but his position has noticeably weakened. His nationalist party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, did not receive a majority in parliament (Lok Sabha), losing 60 mandates. Modi was able to form a government only through a coalition, having gained 285 mandates with the required 272, but this increases his dependence on allies. In addition, for him, this is a rather alarming trend of declining popularity. On the eve of the elections, he even claimed that he would collect 400 votes and receive a supermajority.

Obviously, the crisis in the global economy against the backdrop of shocks due to the actions of the United States is a major blow to Delhi's ambitions in terms of developing an export economy. Naturally, this will affect Modi's position within the country. It will be difficult for him to fulfill his promises.

The incident with the terrorist attack on tourists in Kashmir happened in this difficult situation for both countries. For Modi, the situation in this region is an important marker for the implementation of the policy of the nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party. In 2019, his party abolished the autonomy of Kashmir.

Thus, the party hopes to radically resolve the issue of this complex province with a Muslim majority by depriving it of self-government. While traditionally, Kashmir's autonomy was part of India's strategy to win the sympathy of the local Muslim population and especially the elite. In general, the Muslim minority played a major role in Indian history after 1947, even despite the terrible pogroms of both the Muslim and Indian populations at the time of the partition of the country into India and Pakistan. However, the coming to power of the Bharatiya Janata Party has noticeably changed the situation in a negative direction for the Muslims of India.

In general, it seems that such a sharp aggravation of the situation between India and Pakistan is not dictated by the desire to respond to the terrorist act in Kashmir. Rather, it looks like a convenient pretext for strengthening their positions within the country and is addressed to a greater extent not to the international community, but rather to the domestic audience. Accordingly, one can agree that this is a demonstration that will not lead to a real big war. Both sides are definitely not ready for this. But a repeat of either the 1999 Kargil war or, more likely, the 2019 situation is entirely possible.