Drone attack on CPC: What are the possible consequences?

Experts have commented on the possible consequences of this attack.

What are the possible consequences?

Despite the statement from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy that the drone attacks on the CPC facility will not pose risks for the transportation of Kazakh oil, specialists from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium believe that the consequences of this strike will take from 1.5 to 2 months to be addressed.

According to the chairman of Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas Council “PetroCouncil” Asylbek Dzhaqiev, eliminating the consequences of the attack within two months is an optimistic scenario.

“If drone attacks continue, the pipeline may shut down, and we will not be able to export our oil, meaning we will have to shut down our production,” he said.

He notes that almost 80% of all exports go through CPC, which is key artery providing revenue.

“Eliminating the consequences within two months, I think, is an optimistic scenario. We hope that everything will pass, but I repeat once again, this will have a very negative impact, the entire oil industry may come to a halt,” said the chairman of “PetroCouncil”.

According to oil and gas analyst, director of PACE Analytics Askar Ismailov, Tengizchevroil, NCOC (Kashagan), and Karachaganak may face export restrictions.

Damage to the facility

Representatives of the CPC reported damages such as the destruction of the roof, damage to the closed switchgear (CSG), the gas turbine unit (GTU) being rendered inoperative, damage to cables and the cable overpass, the destruction of two transformers, and a malfunction of the fire suppression system, the expert noted.

“These are preliminary data. Accurate data on the destruction can only be obtained after a thorough inspection. If we consider only the announced data, then a reduction in throughput capacity is inevitable. Without the full operation of the station, oil pumping capacity decreases, as system pressure drops. This means logistical risks increase. While the station is operating in a limited mode, reserve capacities decrease, making the system more vulnerable to further failures. Now it is necessary to revise the delivery schedule. Tengizchevroil, NCOC (Kashagan), and Karachaganak may face export restrictions,” said Askar Ismailov.

Reduction in oil pumping

According to CPC specialists, eliminating the consequences may lead to a reduction in oil pumping volumes from Kazakhstan by about 30%.

“The volume of production will definitely decrease by about 25-30%, according to forecasts, because less will be pumped and, accordingly, less will be transported due to damage in the pipeline,” said Asylbek Dzhaqiev.

He notes that for such critical cases, projects for underground oil and gas storage facilities need to be developed, but at the moment, such work is not being carried out.

According to calculations by oil and gas analyst Askar Ismailov, the CPC specialists’ estimate of a 30% reduction in oil pumping volumes is “realistic” given the scale of the damage.

“Key components (CSG, GTU, transformers) require at least 1–2 months for replacement or restoration. If the equipment is not available in warehouses and needs to be ordered, the repair time may stretch to 3–4 months. Based on my experience with main gas pipelines connecting Azerbaijan and Türkiye, in the first two weeks after an attack, volumes may decrease by 40-50% due to damage assessment and emergency work. After a month, CPC may restore 70-80% of capacity, but full operation is likely only after 2-3 months. Accordingly, on average over 2 months, exports through CPC will decrease by 25-30%, which matches CPC's assessment. If the repairs are delayed, losses may increase to 35%,” said the expert.

How much could Kazakhstan lose?

“Kazakhstan may lose from $300-500 million to up to $1.5 billion. This is what we will fail to supply to global markets, particularly to Europe. Therefore, the issue of supply diversification remains relevant,” said the chairman of Kazakhstan's Oil and Gas Council “PetroCouncil” Asylbek Dzhaqiev.

According to PACE Analytics director Askar Ismailov, if exports decrease by 30% over 2 months, the total lost revenue may amount to about $1.5-2.0 billion. In this case, Kazakhstan may lose up to $1 billion.

CPC shareholders

The shareholders of CPC are: Transneft (manages Russia’s 24% stake), CPC Company (7%), Kazakhstan (through KazMunayGas with a 19% stake and Kazakhstan Pipeline Ventures with a 1.75% stake), the American Chevron (owns 15% through Chevron Caspian Pipeline Consortium), Lukoil International GmbH (12.5%), the American Mobil Caspian Pipeline (7.5%), Rosneft-Shell Caspian Ventures Limited (a joint venture of Rosneft and the British-Dutch Shell, holding 7.5%), BG Overseas Holding Limited and Eni International N.A. N.V. (each holding 2%), and Oryx Caspian Pipeline LLC (1.75%).

Earlier, Kazinform reported that the Kazakh Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented on the UAV attack on the CPC facility. The Ministry’s Official Spokesperson, Aibek Smadyarov, said that this issue is important for Kazakhstan’s economy and will be discussed with Ukrainian partners through diplomatic channels.