Digital Dreams and Geopolitical Realism: Kazakhstan through the eyes of President Tokayev

National interests as a priority

The interview opened with a question about the large-scale reform program Tokayev introduced three years ago. How close is the country to building a “New Kazakhstan”?

“We are moving forward with confidence, although the process is undoubtedly complex, as it has been influenced by numerous developments outside of Kazakhstan,” the President emphasized.

When asked if this referred to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, he confirmed:

“Yes, absolutely. And I believe that it’s not that easy. We must be frank. We must be pragmatic. But at the same time, we need to be very much bold as far as our reforms are concerned. That’s why I am telling my people that we should be very much firm with regard to achieving all goals that have been put in our agenda. Yes, the process is still going on, but it’s a very positive one.”

Foreign policy and trade routes

Tokayev was asked whether Kazakhstan is rethinking its foreign partnerships or rebalancing trade, particularly with the growing importance of the Middle Corridor project.

“First of all, I wouldn’t say so that we are making some reforms with regard to our foreign policy, because it’s a very conservative phenomenon. But at the same time, of course, we need to bear in mind what is happening outside of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is a pillar of stability and security in Eurasia, particularly in Central Asia. And from the very beginning, we have been pursuing the policy of making balance between big powers, our immediate neighbors, but at the same time promoting our national goals and that's why I wouldn't say that we are restructuring the whole foreign policy.”

He acknowledged the importance of diversifying transport routes:

“And in this respect, of course, Trans-Caspian Transport Route is absolutely important. As you know, we are also great supporter of One Belt, One Road initiative put forward by Xi Jinping, the Chairman of China. And it’s not a coincidence that as early as 2013, Xi Jinping announced this initiative in Astana, in the capital of Kazakhstan,” Tokayev stressed.

When asked whether dependence on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) for oil exports through Russia posed a strategic risk, Tokayev responded:

“We should bear in mind that Russia is a strategic partner of Kazakhstan, our immediate neighbour and ally of Kazakhstan. We share the longest border with Russia in the world and, of course, we count on Russia as our strategic partner and we count particularly on CPC. Just recently I had a telephone conversation with President Putin, and we have been talking, frankly speaking, about CPC, how it's going to be used in the future. And I believe that CPC will be continuously serving as a good instrument of shipping or transporting our oil through Russia to the European market as well as beyond.”

While reaffirming the strategic importance of CPC, he stressed the need for alternatives:

“But that doesn’t mean that we are focusing only on the one transportation link or transportation route. That’s why you are right, absolutely, mentioning other routes, and the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, the Middle Corridor. But practically speaking, in terms of the amount of oil which is being transported or exported abroad, still, of course, the priority is being made on CPC and should be made on CPC.”

Middle powers and UN reform

As the interview took place during the Astana International Forum, Tokayev was asked whether Kazakhstan views itself as part of a broader movement to strengthen the role of middle powers in global governance.

“I strongly believe in multilateralism and I strongly believe that it is so-called middle powers should play bigger role in safeguarding peace and security in the world.”

Commenting on the weakening of multilateral institutions, he said:

“Multilateralism is faltering. You know that the Security Council of the United Nations is in deadlock. It has no power, has no might to tackle any key international issue.”

He emphasized Kazakhstan’s commitment to UN reform:

“Kazakhstan is strongly committed to reforming the United Nations. In the beginning of United Nations history, there were only 51 states that are being considered as founding members of the United Nations. Nowadays, we have 193 states,” the president said.

“The Security Council should be expanded and emerging developing states should become members of this key entity of the United Nations, perhaps on a rotational basis. But nevertheless, big powers like, say, Japan, Germany, as well as other countries representing Asia; Africa should be included or involved in the Security Council. It would be a fair solution of the problem.”

Al Jazeera correspondent reminded that many countries over maybe decades have been calling for the reform of key institutions of the United Nations. How can Kazakhstan help to achieve that, where other countries haven't? Is it a matter of leveraging Kazakhstan’s access to key commodities, its supply for critical raw materials that can give Kazakhstan an edge?

“Yes, to some extent, we will be using the so-called leverage instruments. We have abundance of resources of rare earth metals here. We have other natural resources that can be usefully applied to our activities with regard to the United Nations. But at the same time, we are not over exaggerating or over evaluating our role as far as the reform of the United Nations is concerned.

We believe that all states, first of all, as you said, middle powers should join their efforts in order to make United Nations more equitable, more eligible to the contemporary world,” said the President.

Carbon neutrality and digital transformation

On efforts to diversify the economy away from hydrocarbons by 2029, Tokayev acknowledged the challenge:

“Hydrocarbon export, frankly speaking, still will be a majority of our trade to the international market. We should continuously be pragmatic. And I said that Kazakhstan is going to become a non-hydrocarbon country in 2060. It’s quite, I think, very much pragmatic and I would say a modest program based on what we do have and on what we are going to have. Coal in our inner or domestic energy balance accounts for 73%. We cannot give up coal just overnight. We have natural resources like oil, in terms of producing uranium we are number one in the world. 40% of the world market belongs to Kazakhstan.”

The President also spoke about Kazakhstan’s progress in digital infrastructure and IT, highlighting Astana Hub and the significant growth of IT exports:

“We have made a big progress. First of all, we have made or produced our smart computer, which has been delivered recently to Kazakhstan in close cooperation with well-known foreign companies. And as I said, digitalization is our priority. And my dream is that Kazakhstan someday later will become a fully digitalized country.”

Addressing bureaucracy and the development of artificial intelligence, he added:

“You’ve just been talking about bureaucracy. It does exist in Kazakhstan as well as in so many countries. And digitalization is one of the most efficient instruments to tackle this problem. Digitalisation and artificial intelligence. Nobody knows what will be the end of this story and in this context, and I've already made a statement on the margins of the Astana International Forum here that in the context of development, very speedy development of artificial intelligence in the world, these kind of conflicts, wars between states look very much outdated.”

According to the Head of State, the countries must put focus on artificial intelligence, digitalization, and put focus on developing, on giving education to the younger generation and put focus on enlightening our people, bringing them forward in development, but not being engaged in military conflicts.

“Wars between states look very much outdated. It is very much primitive,” Tokayev pointed out.

In closing, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev expressed warm appreciation for Qatar’s leadership:

“I am very much grateful to His Highness Emir of Qatar, who is our reliable partner and who is a friend of people of Kazakhstan, a friend of mine. He has done a lot in terms of advancing, promoting very much businesslike cooperation between both states. And of course, I am very much grateful to your Prime Minister of Qatar, who is a very skillful manager, and he is doing a lot in order to make our friendship based on concrete deeds, concrete deals. And I think that this kind of cooperation will be continuously developing.”