Conclave: A detailed look at the process behind electing the next Pope

The word conclave itself comes from the Latin cum clave, which translates as 'with a key.' According to canon law, the Pope is elected by secret ballot, which is held twice a day—in the morning and in the afternoon. The procedure continues until one of the candidates receives a qualified majority: two-thirds of the votes plus one.

The ballots are burned after each round, and it is the additives to the smoke rising from the chimney of the chapel that determine the signals to the outside world: black smoke means that the Pope has not yet been chosen, and white means that the decision has been made. This time, at least 89 votes out of 133 possible votes will be needed to elect a new pontiff.

The last time the conclave met was in 2013, when the recently deceased Argentine Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio was elected as Pope Francis. The election was not held for the traditional reason of a Pope’s death but because of the voluntary resignation of his predecessor, Benedict XVI. He was the first pontiff to abdicate in more than six centuries. Francis became the 266th pope, and his successor will be the next in line.

The history of the conclave is marked by significant episodes, including the longest papal election in the 13th century, which lasted from 1268 to 1271. 18 cardinals were unable to reach a decision for nearly three years until the residents of Viterbo intervened, locking the cardinals in a hall and dismantling the roof to force a resolution. This event led to the establishment of strict isolation for conclaves and gave the process its name. In 1274, Pope Gregory X formalized these practices with the papal bull Ubi periculum, which laid the foundation for the modern conclave.

Serious changes to the election procedure were introduced gradually. In 1621, Pope Gregory XV legalized secret voting. In the 20th century, Paul VI set an age limit: only cardinals under 80 years old can participate in the conclave. And Benedict XVI amended it, allowing elections to be held faster than the usual 15-day waiting period after the death or departure of the Pope. This rule was first applied in 2013, after his voluntary abdication.

In the modern Church, selecting a new pope goes beyond age and ecclesiastical seniority. Increasingly, cardinals consider candidates’ positions on global challenges, from poverty and migration to climate change and interfaith relations. The ideological outlook of a potential pope is closely examined, particularly regarding social issues, reform, and the Church’s role in a rapidly evolving world.

While the final decision lies strictly with the College of Cardinals behind closed doors, speculation about potential successors to the papacy has already begun. There are no official candidates, but Vatican observers and analysts have identified several prominent figures as frontrunners of the upcoming conclave. Among those frequently mentioned are:

● Pietro Parolin, 70, Italy

● Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, Philippines

● Peter Turkson, 76, Ghana

● Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, Democratic Republic of Congo

● Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, France

● Mario Grech, 68, Malta

● Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, Italy

● Gérald Lacroix, 67, Canada

● Robert Francis Prevost, 69, United States

● José Tolentino de Mendonça, 59, Portugal

The next electee, the 267th in the history of the Catholic Church, could mark another turning point, just as Pope Francis did in 2013 when he became the first Latin American to hold the position. Some experts believe this conclave could once again make history by electing the first African pope in over a millennium or the first Asian pope ever.

Earlier, Kazinform reported that the papal conclave will begin on Wednesday, May 7.