Climate change threatens EU’s chocolate supply, study finds

Findings suggest that disruptions in Ivory Coast and Ghana could significantly impact the EU’s chocolate industry.

Not just regionally, but on the global scale, the EU remains the leading importer of cocoa beans ($4,753,665.84K, 1,682,700,000 kg). It is followed by the Netherlands ($2,184,704.05K, 774,447,000 kg), Malaysia ($1,492,583.14K, 533,013,000 kg), Germany ($876,759.88K, 286,275,000 kg), and the United States ($804,139.42K, 269,073,000 kg).

The World Bank details that the European Union imported 1,682,700,000 kg of cocoa beans, totaling $4,753,665.84K. Among the top cocoa beans importers are Cote d'Ivoire ($2,271,501.69K, 790,951,000 kg), Ghana ($655,516.80K, 213,326,000 kg), Nigeria ($499,232.50K, 179,705,000 kg), Cameroon ($456,805.22K, 210,591,000 kg), and Ecuador ($303,934.32K, 96,949,800 kg).

The study highlights that climate change could significantly disrupt cacao production in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two largest suppliers of cacao to the EU. “The supply of cacao beans to the EU is expected to decrease in the future due to climate change. Compared to current volumes, they will drop by approximately 8% by 2050 under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios,” it reads.

By 2050, cocoa production may decline by 39% in Ghana and 7% in Ivory Coast under the lower-emissions scenario described by the study (RCP2.6). Ivory Coast and Ghana might suffer losses of up to 23% and 86%, respectively, in a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), which would significantly cut cocoa shipments to the EU.

Additionally, the study examined the economic consequences of these production declines. By 2050, a 30% price increase in cacao might cost the EU 2.5 billion euros a year if the supply declines as predicted. According to RCP8.5, cocoa prices might increase by 115% during years of severe drought, costing the EU an extra 10 billion euros yearly.

The study also investigates the effects of EU trade policies, namely the import ban on deforestation. In comparison with the business-as-usual scenario, this policy could further reduce cacao production by 16% in Ghana and 24% in Ivory Coast.

The findings suggest that a considerable reduction in global emissions will lessen the severity of cocoa shortages. Compared to a 3-degree scenario, cocoa shortages could be as much as 30% less severe under a 2.5-degree warming scenario. With estimates indicating that reducing emissions might lessen price spikes by as much as 10%, price increases would also be more gradual.

According to researchers, there are currently no provisions in EU trade agreements for handling supply chain disruptions brought on by climate change. However, aside from food production, climate change may also affect public health, leading to a rise in chronic diseases and increased demand for certain medications in the coming decades, as earlier.