Central Asia moves closer to new economic era amid potential repeal of Jackson–Vanik amendment

U.S. President Donald Trump held talks with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The meeting resulted in agreements in trade, investment, innovation and cross-regional transport connectivity, as well as the announcement of an initiative with the potential to reshape the regional partnership architecture.

Legislative process on repealing the Jackson–Vanik Amendment gains momentum

One of the key outcomes of the summit was progress on the initiative to repeal the Jackson–Vanik Amendment — a Cold War-era measure that formally restricts U.S. trade with former Soviet republics. Corresponding bills have been introduced simultaneously in both chambers of the U.S. Congress to grant the countries of Central Asia PNTR (Permanent Normal Trade Relations) status.

If approved by Congress and signed by the President, the repeal will provide simplified access for regional goods to the U.S. market, establish a legal basis for investment protection agreements, and open new channels for the flow of American technologies and capital — particularly in critical minerals, energy, logistics, green economy sectors and digital solutions.

Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin stated that Kazakhstan is a predictable partner with a stable market economy and is open to expanding economic cooperation. Earlier, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the amendment as “a relic of the past,” noting that its application to the Central Asian countries is no longer justified.

Multi-billion agreements: headline figures

Following the summit, Kazakhstan and the United States signed agreement packages worth approximately $17 billion. Major projects include the purchase of Boeing 787-9 aircraft for Air Astana ($7 billion), a joint project with John Deere for the manufacturing of agricultural machinery ($2.5 billion), the supply of Wabtec locomotives ($1.6 billion), and the development of tungsten deposits ($1.1 billion). Additional agreements were reached in the fields of AI (Groq, Perplexity AI, OpenAI), digital technologies (Oracle, HP, Cisco, Starlink) and Joby Aero air taxi technology for the digital city of Alatau.

Uzbekistan announced a package of agreements exceeding $100 billion over a 10-year horizon, including in energy, critical minerals, infrastructure and digitalization, with around one-third to be implemented within the first three years. Tajikistan signed agreements worth more than $3.2 billion, including the purchase of up to 14 Boeing aircraft for Somon Air and cooperation with Starlink to expand digital connectivity. The Kyrgyz Republic and Turkmenistan did not sign bilateral agreements.

Geopolitical implications and expert assessment

The anticipated granting of PNTR status may open a new chapter in trade and economic relations between the United States and Central Asia, increasing bilateral trade volumes, boosting foreign direct investment and strengthening the region’s position as an equal participant in the global economy. At the same time, experts note the possibility of a selective approach that may initially favor Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which could intensify competitive dynamics within the region.

“The formal repeal of the Jackson–Vanik Amendment with respect to Kazakhstan, if it happens, would be a political and symbolic step rather than an economically transformative one. Kazakhstan already enjoys most-favored-nation status as a WTO member, and the amendment has long been de facto inapplicable. However, its continued existence in the legal domain remained an anachronism, creating elements of uncertainty for businesses. Removing such a barrier could strengthen Kazakhstan’s image as a reliable partner and enhance predictability for investors,” noted Maqsut Narikbayev University International School of Economics Teaching Professor Timur Kogabayev.

According to the expert, the record package of agreements signed during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to the U.S. represents the largest wave of bilateral economic arrangements in decades:

“Agreements totaling around $17 billion — from Boeing aircraft and Wabtec locomotives to AI and critical minerals projects — constitute the largest wave of economic deals between the U.S. and Kazakhstan since the 1990s,” he added.

Outlook

If Congress approves the repeal of the Jackson–Vanik Amendment, Central Asia could undergo economic transformation — expanded access to global markets, increased investment flows and greater technological cooperation. At the same time, the strengthening of U.S. economic presence in the region may intensify geopolitical competition among major powers, requiring Central Asian states to pursue a carefully balanced foreign policy strategy.

The C5+1 platform is increasingly consolidating its role as a key mechanism for institutionalizing cooperation and strengthening the region’s position within the global system.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that the repeal of the Jackson–Vanik Amendment with respect to Kazakhstan would remove an outdated legal barrier in trade relations with the United States and strengthen a stable regime of permanent normal trade relations. Experts note that this step would reduce political uncertainty and serve as a strategic signal for investors, improving the investment climate and facilitating access to joint projects and technologies.