All world regions are nearing their 1.5°C warming limits, study finds

Researchers found that by 2025, regions had experienced 90% to 94% of the warming expected under the 1.5°C global warming threshold. They had also reached 65% to 76% of the warming associated with the 2°C threshold.

The findings cover all 46 land regions assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The researchers examined temperature changes since 1850-1900, including areas with limited historical weather records.

The study estimates that the Russian Arctic has experienced the greatest warming, at 3.3°C above pre-industrial levels. Northeastern North America has warmed by 2.6°C, while Northwestern North America has seen a 2.4°C increase.

Tropical land regions, including much of Africa, have warmed by 1.1°C to 1.8°C. Ocean-dominated regions have generally experienced smaller increases, at around 1°C.

The researchers found that human activities account for almost all the warming recorded across the regions. Greenhouse gas emissions are the main driver, while other human-related factors, particularly aerosols, have partly reduced the warming effect.

The study also highlights that the 1.5°C global warming threshold could be reached around 2029. The 2°C threshold could follow around 2042 under a high-emissions scenario.

Although regions differ in how much their temperatures have risen, their progress towards these global warming thresholds is remarkably similar, the researchers said.

They also found that confidence in regional warming estimates was high, including in parts of Africa where historical temperature records are limited. This is partly because tropical regions tend to experience less natural year-to-year temperature variation.

Earlier, Qazinform News Agency reported that COP31 delegates urged urgent climate finance and justice for developing nations.